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7
FutureAnalysis - - (+6|-0)
Government lite-mode still not likely to end soon(self)
7 commentsbyx0x7

https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-government-shutdown-end-by-763

I saw a lot of people who didn't believe they'd go past the first of November assuming they'd be too chicken to let EBT shutdown. It's reasonable logic. But this is where having some numbers instead of logic is handy. Because there is a counter argument and the numbers are a good way to tell which is more likely.

The counter argument is that both sides think it's in their interest for their elections on November 5th and so would go at least as long as then.

But the numbers suggest it's pretty likely to go much longer. So what is the argument here? The only one I can think of that is reasonable suggests we should see more shutdowns, aka lite-modes, and they should last longer in general. The way the Senate is structured it makes sense that shutdowns would almost be the standard. It basically takes 60 votes in the Senate to agree how the government should run for it to run at all. Well that's just as likely to not work as work when both sides have a reason to push for as much as they can and probably get increased campaign contributions when emergencies like these happen. And there is no reason why more time in a shutdown would change that equation. In theory one of these shutdowns can happen indefinitely. But that begs the question, why haven't prior ones been longer?

For context this one is virtually guaranteed to become the longest shutdown in history:
https://polymarket.com/event/current-shutdown-longest-in-us-history?tid=1762098859688

The last interesting thing is that it's considered less likely that the funding bill that they eventually get will be a clear CR:
https://polymarket.com/event/current-shutdown-longest-in-us-history?tid=1762098859688

This means the most likely outcome is that the republicans cave and increase spending despite being in control of congress. Weird how that is. I've never seen the democrats shrink the size of government while in the majority because the Republicans had the capacity to shutdown the government. So even when the Democrats are the minority they get to dictate policy. And somehow they even get to point a finger of blame at others when they throw their own constituency, welfare parasites, under the bus, to demand that they are still in charge even when in the minority.

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[-]FreshYogurtFactoryStainsNotSemen-2(0|-2)

LOL. Numbers. No one cares about numbers.

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[-]x0x70(0|0)

And this is why people can't predict things. Instead we just have people talking past each other forever. Idiots with broken logic arguing with smarter people with better but still incomplete logic, and not sure how to weigh each factor they know to care about, in a permanent loop never coming to an accurate conclusion.

Or we could just learn to care about numbers, and then have some real sense of what's going on.

Not caring about numbers is like sitting in plato's cave. Except instead of reacting to shadows you have a sleep mask on and your only sense of reality is from having arguments with other people also with sleep masks on.

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[-]FreshYogurtFactoryStainsNotSemen-1(+1|-2)

Most people do not have the ability to look at numbers. Is it normal, or is it century of self? (look up the documentary of that name). Thinking in terms of numbers is generally reserved for people who are technically inclined. Or if you like trains more than most things. Specially when it comes to women, they are not designed to care about numbers, they are desinged for entirely different things.

If you want to convince people of something, you have to become that person and give them an argument they can relate to. I've spent a lot of my adult life as an analyst. I can talk to other analysts with my raw data, but when you need to present data to upper managment or a team that is short on time, you need to give them a chart or a graph.

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[-]x0x70(0|0)

The numbers on that site are presented as charts. I think people can understand a number that indicates something is more likely or less likely.

The key thing is when what those numbers suggest is at odds with many people's assumptions. I think most average people think the shutdown is ending any day now. A large number of average people I've talked to were quick to agree that it would have ended before Nov. 1. But the predictions didn't suggest that. I think average people are trying to estimate how long the shutdown will last, even if subconsciously, because of how it may effect them, or people they know. Or they just want to estimate how it will shape the general social environment if crazies get upset they got cut off for longer than they thought. People are trying to figure out what exactly they are bracing themselves for. I think they are generally underestimating the length.

Sharing those numbers can help reduce errors in people's assumptions. And I do think most people can understand those numbers. If they are here they should. We are trying to push for a more technically inclined culture here.

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[-]FreshYogurtFactoryStainsNotSemen-1(0|-1)

We are trying to push for a more technically inclined culture here.

the success of apple and the the acceptance of modern design is proof you are pushing against a vaccum.

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[-]x0x71(+1|0)

There are plenty of sites with tech oriented users. But I guess if apple does something else I guess no one can do anything different, ever. You just have to set the culture and that becomes the culture. But I guess if it gets zerged by the wrong people, or even some of the right people who think the intention of the site is something else then they can fuck it up for everyone.

All a culture is is what kind of behavior gets rewarded and what doesn't. A POS culture rewards being a piece of shit. Think about rap culture. I'm sure a lot of the rappers are in fact thugs, but they present themselves as being more thugs than they are. Why? Because their culture rewards being the biggest piece of shit possible. And advanced culture rewards being the most advanced version of yourself that you can be.

Do you want to live in an advanced culture or a POS culture? Because if you want to live in a POS culture you're really just a nig in white skin.

I just saw some football today. It was all stats, and numbers. Scores, times, even the players were all numbers. This is bread an circus for the average man. So if your response to seeing numbers is, pff, numbers, numbers are for smart people. You are basically demanding a civilization less advanced and less capable than drunk sportsball fans.

I for one think that's a pretty lame world to live in. I've done voat. I've done poal. They are just contests for who can be the biggest asshole. I've done my time in places like that and frankly I want to do something different.

Because I'm going to be a user on this site. And I need to think about what is the culture going to be on a site that I want to use for the next five years.

Either you're onboard with that culture or you're not. You seem to hate it hear. And you seem to complain a lot. There are so many websites on the internet. And I'm thinking not about if people will like this site. I'm thinking about who will like this site and who won't. Because that determines who you attract and what the culture is. So the question is how do I make this site less appealing to the wrong people and more appealing to the right people. Sometimes the right people and the wrong people can be the same people. If you set a certain culture you get that version of that person.

But where does someone who's only social mode they know is shitting everything to their own level fit into that equation? The problem is there are a lot of those people. So we've got to find an efficient way to communicate that they aren't really welcome and or encourage them to try something different. I kind of like the second option. But it depends on them having any interest.

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[-]FreshYogurtFactoryStainsNotSemen-2(0|-2)

Tech orientated societies, is like the linux community. It is worthless. Nothing is every resolved en mass, because every can fix their own problems. And because tech people think they know best, they make global changes that set a standard, despite not being globally accepted. I hate linux. Its shit and it shows.

If the football you are watching is just numbers, then the presentation is not for sports fans, its for gamblers and betters. I know, because I've been apart of that community. I worked with them before.

Im an old man and Ive been on the internet before most people were even born. Ive seen it build up to magnificence and then crumble down into piss. Im sick all the time and dont get any sleep. I don't have time to waste on little dreams. I want to see big dreams come true and big dreams can only come true if you have them. Also I like being an asshole on the internet. Its fun. Maybe one day, you can step into my anus too.

You do what you want to do and appeal to who you want, and Ill do the same. To who I want. To do. Appealingly. butts.

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