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Predictions - - (+5|-0)
Polymarket considers it unlikely that Khamenei will be out by March 31st. But more likely than not that he will be out by year's end.(polymarket.com)
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[-]x0x72(+2|0)

Though age itself becomes a factor when thinking about a long prediction. I don't know why the US government can't just let this guy age out. He's almost there.

It is also worth noting that a strike against Iran by the end of March is super likely. https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by

If we consider the two independent, which is silly, we have 15.25% odds he is struck and out. 9.75% odds he is out without being struck. 46.36% odd he is struck but not out. 29.64% odds he is nither struck or out.

Maybe it would be fun for me to look at the charts and calculate a correlation and how dependent and independent they are, and then revise those numbers. Maybe later.

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[-]JasonCarswell1(+1|0)

Damn, just yesterday I was listening to something but occupied so it registered but didn't lock in - about this.

It was about anniversaries. I can't even remember if it was March, but for some reason April 4 seems like it, though I may be mixing it up (MLK jr, also 1947 largest group of sunspots on record). There's lots of interesting history on that day, but nothing as good as what they mentioned that may be a motivating symbolic excuse for Israel/Iran. Interesting, but I didn't really care because they're gonna do what they're gonna do regardless.

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[-]Neol1(+1|0)

It's weird, I think Trump will go for a decapitation strike this time, but apparently many people think he will strike a lot of things (two carrier strike groups & lots of jets), but not the head of state? Or do they think US doesn't know where he is? Or do they think he's in a deep unstrikable bunker? We'll see I guess.

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[-]JasonCarswell1(+1|0)

Rarely do wars aim at the head. Assassinations suffice.
And they're not necessarily aiming to kill as many as possible.

It's always psychological in order to change their beliefs (ie. autonomy) and systems.
The new systems will need heads, whether new or old.

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